POTUS 2016 With Brian Lehrer Discusses ‘The Latino Vote’ (VIDEO)

This week on POTUS 2016, a half-hour weekly program on CUNY TV, host Brian Lehrer and guests discuss “The Latino Vote” and the issues that will be driving Latino voters to the polls in November. Joining Lehrer are guests Raul Reyes, attorney and political commentator, and Julio Ricardo Varela, political editor with the Futuro Media Group and regular In The Thick commentator.

Gallup: US-Born Latinos More Concerned About Election Than Foreign-Born Latinos

A Gallup poll released Monday showing how this country is feeling about the 2016 presidential elections noted that Latinos born in the United States expressed more concern towards the stakes than Latinos born outside of the United States.

According to Gallup’s findings:

Sixty-nine percent of native-born Hispanics strongly agree that this year’s election stakes are higher than usual, compared with 31% of Hispanic immigrants. Forty-five percent of Hispanics born in the U.S. strongly agree they are afraid of what will happen if their candidate for president does not win, compared with 30% of Hispanic immigrants.

The Gallup poll of 3,270 adults included a sample of 906 Latinos. Of those 906 Latinos interviewed, 271 of the interviews were in Spanish. Gallup listed the margin of error for the Latino sample at +/- 6 percent, with a confidence level of 95%.

Gallup also said that 87% of U.S.-born Latinos were registered to vote but when it came to foreign-born Latino immigrants, “28% say they are registered, and another 27% plan to register before the election.”

The poll added that only 38% of Latinos (U.S.-born and foreign-born combined) believe “stakes in this presidential election are higher than in previous years” and that 50% of Latinos think “the stakes in this presidential election are higher than in previous years.”

It also concluded that “Hispanics are less likely than either whites or blacks to ‘strongly agree’ that they are afraid of what will happen if their candidate loses.”

A Day Before Start of GOP Convention, Clinton Leads Trump 76%-14% with Latinos in New Poll

A new NBC News/ Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll released the Sunday before the start of the Republican National Convention has Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 76%-14% with registered Latino voters.

The poll sampled 300 registered Latino voters and has a +/- 5.66 margin of error, but when compared to other national polls of Latino voters, these latest numbers are consistent with other findings. For example, last week’s Univision poll has Clinton with a 67%-19% lead over Trump (Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein got 4% respectively). A Pew poll from July 7 has Clinton at 66% and Trump at 24%. The July 5 tracking poll from Florida International University/Adsmovil shows Clinton with a 80%-13% advantage.

If these current poll numbers were to hold for the general election, Trump will have earned the lowest support from Latino voters since 1980. In 1996, according to Pew, Republican Bob Dole got 21% of the Latino vote.

The NBC News/ Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll also said that Trump’s unfavorability rating with Latino voters is at 82 percent. Clinton’s unfavorables were at 25%.

REPORT: High Percentage of Latinos in the US Southwest Are Not Voting

According to a report issued by the Graduate Center of the City University of New York’s Center for Latino American, Caribbean and Latino Studies (CLACLS), the southwestern states of Texas, Arizona and New Mexico account for 25% of all Latinos living in the United States, as well as 25% of all eligible Latino voters as of 2014. However, the report shows low voter registration and participation rates.

For example, here are Texas’ Latino voting patterns from 1996 – 2016:

Screen Shot 2016-07-13 at 2.55.29 PM

Screen Shot 2016-07-13 at 3.07.33 PM

 

Key findings in the Southwestern states of Texas, Arizona and New Mexico include the following:

  • A high percentage of potential Latino voters in Texas Latinos of Mexican-origin and were born in the U.S., thus eligible to vote. However, because of low registration and turnout rates, these voters are not exercising their potential political influence. CLACLS projects that Latinos will comprise 24 percent of all Texas voters in November 2016. This increase is due to demographic growth, not increased participation rates.
  • Similar to Texas, Latinos of Mexican origin are a large percentage of eligible Latino voters. Arizona Latinos had very low voter registration rates at about 52 percent of all eligible Latino voters in 2008 and 2012. This is not expected to change in 2016. Because of these low registration rates, only 37% of  eligible Latino voters actually voted in Arizona in 2008 and 40% in 2012. CLACLS projects that about 41% will vote in November 2016.
  • Latinos in New Mexico both registered and voted at rates that were significantly above national averages.

You can read the entire report here:

For more information about this report, visit the CLACLS Latino Data Project.

Security Tops Most Important Election Issue in Latest National Tracking Poll of Latino Voters

The latest New Latino Voice online tracking poll conducted by Florida International University and Hispanic advertising company Adsmovil reported that security is the most important 2016 election issue among Latino voters, the first time this issue topped the survey since the NLV tracking poll launched in April.

Security1

FIU professor Eduardo A. Gamarra, one of the poll’s co-authors, attributed this latest finding to the June 12 shooting in Orlando.

“Most likely this is a result of the tragedy in Orlando that directly affected the Latino community,” Gamarra told Latino USA.

The poll also tracked Latino voter preferences between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. According to the latest results, Clinton leads Trump with Latino voters by a margin of 58 points (75-17). About eight percent of voters chose Other. (Click here for previous stories about the NLV poll.)

Vote2

The June 13-19 survey asked 9,844 online Latinos the question about presidential preference and 4,815 online Latinos the question about the election’s most important issue. According to poll organizers, 200,000 Latinos have responded to the NLV poll since it was launched in April.

The latest toplines are below:

Data and Confused

The phrase “lies, damned lies, and statistics” explains the fallibility of statistics, especially when they’re used to strengthen a weak claim. Statistics may seem like a foolproof science, but you should think twice before you accept a number at face value. And in this presidential election, there have been a lot of poll numbers thrown our way.

One particular poll result that grabbed people’s attention came from the Nevada caucus’ entrance polls, where Donald Trump won 44% of the vote from Latino Republican caucus-goers. But mainstream news outlets, the general public and Trump himself took that number and claimed that the presumptive GOP nominee had therefore “won the Latino vote” when in fact he won the vote of those Latino Republicans in Nevada who attended the caucus. And that group is not representative of all Nevada Latinos.

So why were some people so quick to apply this poll result to all Latinos? A lot of the confusion comes from the fact that there’s more than meets the eye when it comes to numbers. In this segment, we take a look at what exactly goes into polling, how interpreting the numbers tend to go wrong and the future of this inexact science.

Major funding for Latino USA‘s election coverage provided by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, a private corporation funded by the American people.

Featured image: Donald Trump February 2016 election night rally in New Hampshire. (Photo by Matthew Cavanaugh/Getty Images)

New June FIU/Adsmovil Online Tracking Poll with Latino Voters: Clinton 75%, Trump 17%, Other 8%

The latest online tracking poll of Latino voters by Florida International University’s Steven J. Green School of International & Public Affairs and mobile Hispanic advertising company Adsmovil continues to show Hillary Clinton with a commanding lead over Donald Trump. In the June 2-5 survey (see previous results here), Clinton won the support of 75% of participants, with Trump getting 17% and 8% choosing Other.

Clinton1

The FIU/Adsmovil poll has been asking respondents the same question since April. Since then, both Clinton’s and Trump’s support has increased, with Other decreasing significantly.

Clinton2

This latest survey sampled 3,338 online Latinos. When asked about the poll’s methodology last month, FIU professor Eduardo Gamarra told Latino USA, “We are increasingly confident of the data, given its consistency week after week. We now have polled over 200,00 Latinos in a seven-week period and the results are consistent daily and weekly.”

Other highlights from the survey include:

  • Men: Clinton 75%, Trump 19%, Other 6%
  • Women: Clinton 74%, Trump 14%, Other 12%
  • Among 18-24-year-old Latinos, Trump’s support is at 27%. It is 26% with Latinos over 65.
  • 23% of Latinos think immigration is the most important issue this election season, with 22% think it is the economy.

You can read the full results below:

94 Percent of California’s Registered Latino Voters Predicted to Cast Ballot in 2016 Election

The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) predicted this week that 94 percent of California’s 4.1 million registered Latino voters will participate in the November 2016 election. According to NALEO’s latest state profile of Latino voters, it estimated that over 3,839,000 California Latino voters will go to the polls. If that number holds, according to NALEO, it would “mark a 22 percent increase in Latino turnout in the state from Election 2012, and a 12 percent increase in the Latino share of the vote in the state from Election 2012.”

Other highlights from the NALEO profile include the following:

  • Latinos account for nearly one of every four registered voters in California. There are 17,075,641 registered voters in California.
  • 54% of California’s Latino registered voters identify as Democrats, 29% are unaffiliated and 17% identify as Republican.

For the complete report, see below.

National Online Survey of 8,000+ Latinos: Clinton 62%, Other 26%, Trump 12%

A new April online mobile survey of more than 8,000 U.S. Latinos conducted in Spanish by Florida International University’s Steven J. Green School of International & Public Affairs and mobile Hispanic advertising company Adsmovil reported that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has a commanding 50-point lead over Republican candidate Donald Trump. According to the survey, which ran from April 11-15, 62% of Latinos chose Clinton, with only 12% choosing Trump and 26% preferring another candidate.

Slide1

The survey also broke down the data based on gender, age and educational levels. Despite Clinton’s overall popularity with Latinos, the candidate’s numbers barely beat out “Other” with younger Latino voters.

Slide2

This week, Latino USA explored some of the reasons why this Latino generation gap exists.

Nonetheless, all the findings in this latest online mobile survey indicate that Clinton’s Latino support over Trump is strong.

Slide4

When survey organizers ran a similar survey from April 18–22 and got a response from 7,714 Latino voters, Clinton’s support went from 63% to 65%. Trump stayed at about 12%, while “Other” dipped to 23%.

Slide5

In March, Latino USA spoke with FIU Professor Eduardo A. Gamarra about these online mobile surveys and their methodology. At the time, Gamarra was sharing the results of a online survey that had asked about 9,000 Latino voters in Spanish their preference in a head-to-head election between Clinton and Trump. That poll showed Clinton with a 60-point lead, although respondents were only given two choices, unlike the three choices of the April survey. Here is what Gamarra said then about that March poll and its findings:

“What we found about our survey is that results actually paralleled the results’ average of all other polls,” Gamarra said.

Gamarra also noted that even though the FIU survey is not a “probabilistic poll” like Gallup, this new type of survey does add value informing the Latino community, especially since the number of polling organizations that focus on the Latino electorate is very small.

“Probabilistic polls assume that every Latino in the United States would have an equal chance of being polled. This is simply not the case here with this survey,” Gamarra said. “We knew that going in that this was not probabilistic. Probabilistic polls are very difficult to make these days because of the constraints around land lines and other factors.”

“What we are saying is that we have a database that belongs to Adsmovil, which we are polling,” Gamarra continued. “Everyone in that database has an equal chance of being polled. But we are not claiming to speak for all Latinos. We are not in that range. But what we are saying, and this is the important part—because we are getting such large numbers, about 10,000 responses, we are compensating for the fact that this survey is non-probabilistic by getting the huge numbers that we are getting.”

Having such numbers, Gamarra explained, gave his group’s efforts “confidence in the results” of the survey.

Adsmovil shared the following toplines of the April with Latino USA. The survey also asked participants what where the most important issues facing Latinos in the U.S. right now. According to the results, immigration and the economy topped the list.