National Online Survey of 8,000+ Latinos: Clinton 62%, Other 26%, Trump 12%

A new April online mobile survey of more than 8,000 U.S. Latinos conducted in Spanish by Florida International University’s Steven J. Green School of International & Public Affairs and mobile Hispanic advertising company Adsmovil reported that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has a commanding 50-point lead over Republican candidate Donald Trump. According to the survey, which ran from April 11-15, 62% of Latinos chose Clinton, with only 12% choosing Trump and 26% preferring another candidate.

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The survey also broke down the data based on gender, age and educational levels. Despite Clinton’s overall popularity with Latinos, the candidate’s numbers barely beat out “Other” with younger Latino voters.

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This week, Latino USA explored some of the reasons why this Latino generation gap exists.

Nonetheless, all the findings in this latest online mobile survey indicate that Clinton’s Latino support over Trump is strong.

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When survey organizers ran a similar survey from April 18–22 and got a response from 7,714 Latino voters, Clinton’s support went from 63% to 65%. Trump stayed at about 12%, while “Other” dipped to 23%.

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In March, Latino USA spoke with FIU Professor Eduardo A. Gamarra about these online mobile surveys and their methodology. At the time, Gamarra was sharing the results of a online survey that had asked about 9,000 Latino voters in Spanish their preference in a head-to-head election between Clinton and Trump. That poll showed Clinton with a 60-point lead, although respondents were only given two choices, unlike the three choices of the April survey. Here is what Gamarra said then about that March poll and its findings:

“What we found about our survey is that results actually paralleled the results’ average of all other polls,” Gamarra said.

Gamarra also noted that even though the FIU survey is not a “probabilistic poll” like Gallup, this new type of survey does add value informing the Latino community, especially since the number of polling organizations that focus on the Latino electorate is very small.

“Probabilistic polls assume that every Latino in the United States would have an equal chance of being polled. This is simply not the case here with this survey,” Gamarra said. “We knew that going in that this was not probabilistic. Probabilistic polls are very difficult to make these days because of the constraints around land lines and other factors.”

“What we are saying is that we have a database that belongs to Adsmovil, which we are polling,” Gamarra continued. “Everyone in that database has an equal chance of being polled. But we are not claiming to speak for all Latinos. We are not in that range. But what we are saying, and this is the important part—because we are getting such large numbers, about 10,000 responses, we are compensating for the fact that this survey is non-probabilistic by getting the huge numbers that we are getting.”

Having such numbers, Gamarra explained, gave his group’s efforts “confidence in the results” of the survey.

Adsmovil shared the following toplines of the April with Latino USA. The survey also asked participants what where the most important issues facing Latinos in the U.S. right now. According to the results, immigration and the economy topped the list.

The Latino Vote, Maria Hinojosa, Cristela and Hispandering: Catch Latino USA This May 5 at DePaul

If you are in Chicago this Thursday May 5 and love politics, don’t miss this free event brought to you by DePaul University’s Department of Latin American and Latino Studies and the Futuro Media Group, producers of Latino USA, Humanizing America, In The Thick and America By the Numbers With Maria Hinojosa:

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The event is open to the public. You can register for free at this link. Here is the schedule of events:

Schedule:

9:00-9:30am – Introductions and Coffee

9:30-11:00am – Deconstructing the Myth of Numbers with Maria Hinojosa (Futuro Media Group), Mark Hugo Lopez (Pew Research Center), Cristina Mora (University of California, Berkeley), Michael Rodriguez (University of Chicago), and Julio Ricardo Varela (Futuro Media Group)

11:15-12:30pm – Humanizing America viewing and guests with Christian Diaz (“Young and Latino”) , Anthony Downer (“Leaders of Color”), Omar Lopez (“Senior and Progressive”), Reema Ahmad (“Young and Muslim”), and Maria Hinojosa

12:30-1:00pm Networking and Strategizing Break

1:00-2:15pm – Black/Brown Coalitions with Valerie Johnson (DePaul University), María de Los Angeles Torres (University of Illinois in Chicago), and Laura Washington (Chicago Sun Times)

2:15pm-3:00pm – Hispandering with Latina comedian Cristela Alonzo

WHEN
WHERE
DePaul University Lincoln Park Student Center – 2250 North Sheffield Avenue Room 120A (Multipurpose Room), Chicago, IL 60614 – View Map

The Generation Gap Between Latino Voters

Latino Democrats are pretty evenly split between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, according to this poll. Within that split, older voters tend to prefer Clinton while younger voters give more support to Sanders.

The reasons why seem to be embodied by activist icon Dolores Huerta, who is strongly supporting Clinton and actress Rosario Dawson who has been hitting the campaign trail for Sanders.

Herta and Dawson recently had a public disagreement that started when Huerta published an article criticizing Sanders. Then there was the situation at the Nevada caucus and the question on whether or not Bernie Sanders supporters were chanting “English Only” at Huerta.

Host Maria Hinojosa, Futuro Media’s politics editor Julio Ricardo Varela and Latino USA senior producer Daisy Rosario hear from two experts, Stella Rouse and Stephen Nuño, about what might be motivating these preferences.

Featured image: Dolores Huerta and Rosario Dawson in 2014 (Photo by Vivien Killilea/Getty Images for Budweiser)

Longtime Resident, First-Time Voter

As the U.S. presidential election draws closer, many Latinos living in the United States will be going to the polls. Some, like Sara López Lara will be doing that for the very first time.

The 30-year-old Mexican native became a U.S. citizen in December 2015 after living here since she was a teenager.

“Everybody told me, Sara, you need to become a US citizen,” she said. “And that was a no brainer, I needed to do it because I wanted to vote.”

López Lara has always been passionate about politics and community organizing. After college, she helped Latinos in Minnesota to register to vote.

Since she became a U.S. citizen, López Lara says her identity has shifted. She no longer feels like a Mexican immigrant. Now she identifies more as a Mexican-American woman.

“There’s a lot of nuance in being Latin American, being an immigrant, and also a lot of nuance in becoming a citizen,” she said.

Featured image: Photo courtesy of Sara López Lara

One Hand in Their Pockets, the Other in Their Hearts

At a debate in March, Univision’s Enrique Acevedo introduced Lucia Quiej to the Democratic candidates. She then asked them how they plan to reunite families separated due to deportation. Lucia is an undocumented mother of five whose husband had been deported. Acevedo stood with Lucia and held the microphone as the candidates responded. He then leaned down closely to translate their responses into her ear. Viewers everywhere immediately began tweeting about this moment, calling it heartwarming and sweet.

This week, we spoke with Acevedo about those seconds with Quiej and also about what gets people motivated to vote.

Featured image: Screen grab from Univision debate

National Poll of Candidates: Trump Has Highest Unfavorables with Latinos, While Sanders Has Lowest

Over the past week, two posts from a new national poll of registered Latino voters conducted by America’s Voice and Latino Decisions (whose co-founders work with the Hillary Clinton campaign) have offered a deeper dive into the mood of the 2016 U.S. Latino electorate, including a finding that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has an unfavorable rating of 87% with Latinos. In contrast, the poll reported, Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders’ unfavorable rating of 24% is the lowest rating among the race’s five remaining candidates.

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Both Sanders and Clinton had the highest favorable ratings at 61%, 12 points lower than President Barack Obama’s rating. However, 15% of respondents didn’t know whether they had an unfavorable or favorable view of Sanders. Among Republican candidates, Cuban-American Ted Cruz had a 36% favorable rating, and his 52% unfavorable rating was the second-highest.

The poll asked 2,200 registered Latino voters questions about candidate opinions and other topics. One finding about issues that matter to Latino voters showed a sharp contrast with the general electorate:

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In addition, the Republican Party continues to be seen in a negative light with Latino voters:

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You can access the poll’s toplines here. The follow is the slide presentation that accompanies the poll.

1st Wave America’s Voice/LD 2016 Tracking Poll

The groups plan to release two more similar polls later this year.

Wilmer Valderrama Explains One of the ‘Major Problems’ in This Election

Actor Wilmer Valderrama has just about had it with the finger-pointing this election season.

The “Minority Report” star, who works closely with the non-partisan organization Voto Latino, recently spoke to The Huffington Post about his concerns over the current political tactics of presidential candidates.

“A lot of the campaigns and the political journey of this last year and a half for our government has become all for the sake of entertainment and very little for the discussion of change,” Valderrama told HuffPost. “A lot of pointing fingers and a lot of name calling, saying ‘you’re a liar, you’re a liar.’ Everyone’s calling each other a liar, so you don’t know who’s actually telling the truth anymore.”

Read More at HuffPost Latino Voices

New National Spanish-Language Survey: Clinton Trounces Trump Among Latino Voters

A new Spanish-language online survey from Florida International University’s Steven J. Green School of International & Public Affairs and mobile Hispanic advertising company Adsmovil concluded that Democrat Hillary Clinton would defeat Republican Donald Trump by more than 60 percentage points among Latino voters in a head-to-head presidential election.

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The online mobile survey, part of the Green School’s Latino Public Opinion Forum, was conducted from March 1 through March 8. According to FIU Professor Eduardo A. Gamarra, who designed the mobile online survey with fellow FIU Professor Guillermo J. Grenier, over 9,000 registered voters participated. Gamarra said that this new kind of online mobile survey polling is still in the early stages when it comes to political polling, but so far he has been impressed by the response rates and the results, especially since these mobile survey methods have been used previously with some success in the area of formal market research.

“This kind of polling was very innovative for us because the average phone poll these days only has at best about a 9% response rate,” Gamarra told Latino USA. “That’s been the problem largely because nobody owns now a land line. So we moved into this cell phone world, but it’s impossible to get cell phone databases from telephone companies primarily because of legal restrictions.”

Out of the more than 9,000 voters in the survey, over 500 individuals identified themselves as Latino, but Gamarra said that the survey’s strong response rate and the fact that the survey was conducted in Spanish would indicate a high degree of accuracy that the overwhelming majority of participants were Latinos.

“This is really where the technology needs to be a refined a little bit,” Gamarra said. “We know that the database is Latinos. We asked the questions in Spanish. But as verification, we asked participants, ‘Are you a Latino?’ What happens when we do that? People don’t want to confirm that they are Latinos.”

“There are a lot of Americans who speak Spanish today, but I don’t think they would answers polls in Spanish if they weren’t Latinos,” Gamarra added.

The FIU results confirmed the findings of other recent higher-profile national polls with Latino votes. For example, in a Univision-Washington poll from last month, Clinton held a 73%-16% advantage with Latinos in a head-to-head contest against Trump. In addition, a new Gallup poll said last week that 77% of Latinos have an unfavorable view of Trump, while 12% view him favorably. Results from the March 15 Florida primary said that Clinton won 69% of Latino Democrats’ support, while Trump won 27% of Latino Republicans.

“What we found about our survey is that results actually paralleled the results’ average of all other polls,” Gamarra said.

Gamarra also noted that even though the FIU survey is not a “probabilistic poll” like Gallup, this new type of survey does add value informing the Latino community, especially since the number of polling organizations that focus on the Latino electorate is very small.

“Probabilistic polls assume that every Latino in the United States would have an equal chance of being polled. This is simply not the case here with this survey,” Gamarra said. “We knew that going in that this was not probabilistic. Probabilistic polls are very difficult to make these days because of the constraints around land lines and other factors.”

“What we are saying is that we have a database that belongs to Adsmovil, which we are polling,” Gamarra continued. “Everyone in that database has an equal chance of being polled. But we are not claiming to speak for all Latinos. We are not in that range. But what we are saying, and this is the important part—because we are getting such large numbers, about 10,000 responses, we are compensating for the fact that this survey is non-probabilistic by getting the huge numbers that we are getting.”

Having such numbers, Gamarra explained, gave his group’s efforts “confidence in the results” of the survey.

FIU also broke down age demographics for Clinton and Trump supporters. It concluded that even though Trump’s Latino support was small, it was still young. Clinton’s Latino support tended to skew older.

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Finally, the survey reported that close to 98% of Trump supporters said that Trump’s immigration stance was the biggest reason why they would vote for the GOP front-runner.

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New Washington Post-Univision Election 2016 Poll Confirms (Yet Again) Trump’s ‘Latino Problem’

Add one more national poll to the growing list of polls indicating that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump still has a ‘Latino problem.’ A new Washington Post-Univision poll released earlier today has Trump losing to Marco Rubio with Latino Republicans and not even gaining 20% of the Latino vote in respective head-to-head contests with Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

The following screen grabs from Univision’s landing page for the poll summarize some of the toplines. This first image shows that Rubio has an edge over Trump with Latino Republicans.

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These next two images present Trump’s chances against Clinton or Sanders with Latino voters in a general election. Rubio’s appeal with Latino voters is higher than Trump’s. Rubio surpasses Mitt Romney’s 27% 2012 showing with Latinos, while Trump is less than Bob Dole’s 1996 Latino numbers (21%).

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As for Trump’s comments about immigration, this image says that 74% of Latinos found them “offensive” and that 81% of Latinos “hold an unfavorable opinion” of the candidate.

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The poll also looked at the Democratic race and how Clinton’s lead with Latinos has gone from 73% last summer to 57% today. Nonetheless, Clinton still has a 29-point Latino advantage over Sanders.

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The poll concludes that the Sanders surge with Latino has to do with young voters. Clinton still holds a substantial lead over Sanders with Latinos 35 years and over.

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The poll, which occurred via telephone from February 11 through February 18, interviewed 1,200 Latino voters in the United Sates. The full results are below:

Washington Post-Univision Poll: February 25, 2016 by Latino USA