A Day Before Start of GOP Convention, Clinton Leads Trump 76%-14% with Latinos in New Poll

A new NBC News/ Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll released the Sunday before the start of the Republican National Convention has Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 76%-14% with registered Latino voters.

The poll sampled 300 registered Latino voters and has a +/- 5.66 margin of error, but when compared to other national polls of Latino voters, these latest numbers are consistent with other findings. For example, last week’s Univision poll has Clinton with a 67%-19% lead over Trump (Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein got 4% respectively). A Pew poll from July 7 has Clinton at 66% and Trump at 24%. The July 5 tracking poll from Florida International University/Adsmovil shows Clinton with a 80%-13% advantage.

If these current poll numbers were to hold for the general election, Trump will have earned the lowest support from Latino voters since 1980. In 1996, according to Pew, Republican Bob Dole got 21% of the Latino vote.

The NBC News/ Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll also said that Trump’s unfavorability rating with Latino voters is at 82 percent. Clinton’s unfavorables were at 25%.

REPORT: High Percentage of Latinos in the US Southwest Are Not Voting

According to a report issued by the Graduate Center of the City University of New York’s Center for Latino American, Caribbean and Latino Studies (CLACLS), the southwestern states of Texas, Arizona and New Mexico account for 25% of all Latinos living in the United States, as well as 25% of all eligible Latino voters as of 2014. However, the report shows low voter registration and participation rates.

For example, here are Texas’ Latino voting patterns from 1996 – 2016:

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Key findings in the Southwestern states of Texas, Arizona and New Mexico include the following:

  • A high percentage of potential Latino voters in Texas Latinos of Mexican-origin and were born in the U.S., thus eligible to vote. However, because of low registration and turnout rates, these voters are not exercising their potential political influence. CLACLS projects that Latinos will comprise 24 percent of all Texas voters in November 2016. This increase is due to demographic growth, not increased participation rates.
  • Similar to Texas, Latinos of Mexican origin are a large percentage of eligible Latino voters. Arizona Latinos had very low voter registration rates at about 52 percent of all eligible Latino voters in 2008 and 2012. This is not expected to change in 2016. Because of these low registration rates, only 37% of  eligible Latino voters actually voted in Arizona in 2008 and 40% in 2012. CLACLS projects that about 41% will vote in November 2016.
  • Latinos in New Mexico both registered and voted at rates that were significantly above national averages.

You can read the entire report here:

For more information about this report, visit the CLACLS Latino Data Project.

Security Tops Most Important Election Issue in Latest National Tracking Poll of Latino Voters

The latest New Latino Voice online tracking poll conducted by Florida International University and Hispanic advertising company Adsmovil reported that security is the most important 2016 election issue among Latino voters, the first time this issue topped the survey since the NLV tracking poll launched in April.

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FIU professor Eduardo A. Gamarra, one of the poll’s co-authors, attributed this latest finding to the June 12 shooting in Orlando.

“Most likely this is a result of the tragedy in Orlando that directly affected the Latino community,” Gamarra told Latino USA.

The poll also tracked Latino voter preferences between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. According to the latest results, Clinton leads Trump with Latino voters by a margin of 58 points (75-17). About eight percent of voters chose Other. (Click here for previous stories about the NLV poll.)

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The June 13-19 survey asked 9,844 online Latinos the question about presidential preference and 4,815 online Latinos the question about the election’s most important issue. According to poll organizers, 200,000 Latinos have responded to the NLV poll since it was launched in April.

The latest toplines are below:

Data and Confused

The phrase “lies, damned lies, and statistics” explains the fallibility of statistics, especially when they’re used to strengthen a weak claim. Statistics may seem like a foolproof science, but you should think twice before you accept a number at face value. And in this presidential election, there have been a lot of poll numbers thrown our way.

One particular poll result that grabbed people’s attention came from the Nevada caucus’ entrance polls, where Donald Trump won 44% of the vote from Latino Republican caucus-goers. But mainstream news outlets, the general public and Trump himself took that number and claimed that the presumptive GOP nominee had therefore “won the Latino vote” when in fact he won the vote of those Latino Republicans in Nevada who attended the caucus. And that group is not representative of all Nevada Latinos.

So why were some people so quick to apply this poll result to all Latinos? A lot of the confusion comes from the fact that there’s more than meets the eye when it comes to numbers. In this segment, we take a look at what exactly goes into polling, how interpreting the numbers tend to go wrong and the future of this inexact science.

Major funding for Latino USA‘s election coverage provided by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, a private corporation funded by the American people.

Featured image: Donald Trump February 2016 election night rally in New Hampshire. (Photo by Matthew Cavanaugh/Getty Images)

New June FIU/Adsmovil Online Tracking Poll with Latino Voters: Clinton 75%, Trump 17%, Other 8%

The latest online tracking poll of Latino voters by Florida International University’s Steven J. Green School of International & Public Affairs and mobile Hispanic advertising company Adsmovil continues to show Hillary Clinton with a commanding lead over Donald Trump. In the June 2-5 survey (see previous results here), Clinton won the support of 75% of participants, with Trump getting 17% and 8% choosing Other.

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The FIU/Adsmovil poll has been asking respondents the same question since April. Since then, both Clinton’s and Trump’s support has increased, with Other decreasing significantly.

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This latest survey sampled 3,338 online Latinos. When asked about the poll’s methodology last month, FIU professor Eduardo Gamarra told Latino USA, “We are increasingly confident of the data, given its consistency week after week. We now have polled over 200,00 Latinos in a seven-week period and the results are consistent daily and weekly.”

Other highlights from the survey include:

  • Men: Clinton 75%, Trump 19%, Other 6%
  • Women: Clinton 74%, Trump 14%, Other 12%
  • Among 18-24-year-old Latinos, Trump’s support is at 27%. It is 26% with Latinos over 65.
  • 23% of Latinos think immigration is the most important issue this election season, with 22% think it is the economy.

You can read the full results below:

94 Percent of California’s Registered Latino Voters Predicted to Cast Ballot in 2016 Election

The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) predicted this week that 94 percent of California’s 4.1 million registered Latino voters will participate in the November 2016 election. According to NALEO’s latest state profile of Latino voters, it estimated that over 3,839,000 California Latino voters will go to the polls. If that number holds, according to NALEO, it would “mark a 22 percent increase in Latino turnout in the state from Election 2012, and a 12 percent increase in the Latino share of the vote in the state from Election 2012.”

Other highlights from the NALEO profile include the following:

  • Latinos account for nearly one of every four registered voters in California. There are 17,075,641 registered voters in California.
  • 54% of California’s Latino registered voters identify as Democrats, 29% are unaffiliated and 17% identify as Republican.

For the complete report, see below.

National Online Survey of 8,000+ Latinos: Clinton 62%, Other 26%, Trump 12%

A new April online mobile survey of more than 8,000 U.S. Latinos conducted in Spanish by Florida International University’s Steven J. Green School of International & Public Affairs and mobile Hispanic advertising company Adsmovil reported that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has a commanding 50-point lead over Republican candidate Donald Trump. According to the survey, which ran from April 11-15, 62% of Latinos chose Clinton, with only 12% choosing Trump and 26% preferring another candidate.

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The survey also broke down the data based on gender, age and educational levels. Despite Clinton’s overall popularity with Latinos, the candidate’s numbers barely beat out “Other” with younger Latino voters.

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This week, Latino USA explored some of the reasons why this Latino generation gap exists.

Nonetheless, all the findings in this latest online mobile survey indicate that Clinton’s Latino support over Trump is strong.

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When survey organizers ran a similar survey from April 18–22 and got a response from 7,714 Latino voters, Clinton’s support went from 63% to 65%. Trump stayed at about 12%, while “Other” dipped to 23%.

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In March, Latino USA spoke with FIU Professor Eduardo A. Gamarra about these online mobile surveys and their methodology. At the time, Gamarra was sharing the results of a online survey that had asked about 9,000 Latino voters in Spanish their preference in a head-to-head election between Clinton and Trump. That poll showed Clinton with a 60-point lead, although respondents were only given two choices, unlike the three choices of the April survey. Here is what Gamarra said then about that March poll and its findings:

“What we found about our survey is that results actually paralleled the results’ average of all other polls,” Gamarra said.

Gamarra also noted that even though the FIU survey is not a “probabilistic poll” like Gallup, this new type of survey does add value informing the Latino community, especially since the number of polling organizations that focus on the Latino electorate is very small.

“Probabilistic polls assume that every Latino in the United States would have an equal chance of being polled. This is simply not the case here with this survey,” Gamarra said. “We knew that going in that this was not probabilistic. Probabilistic polls are very difficult to make these days because of the constraints around land lines and other factors.”

“What we are saying is that we have a database that belongs to Adsmovil, which we are polling,” Gamarra continued. “Everyone in that database has an equal chance of being polled. But we are not claiming to speak for all Latinos. We are not in that range. But what we are saying, and this is the important part—because we are getting such large numbers, about 10,000 responses, we are compensating for the fact that this survey is non-probabilistic by getting the huge numbers that we are getting.”

Having such numbers, Gamarra explained, gave his group’s efforts “confidence in the results” of the survey.

Adsmovil shared the following toplines of the April with Latino USA. The survey also asked participants what where the most important issues facing Latinos in the U.S. right now. According to the results, immigration and the economy topped the list.

The Latino Vote, Maria Hinojosa, Cristela and Hispandering: Catch Latino USA This May 5 at DePaul

If you are in Chicago this Thursday May 5 and love politics, don’t miss this free event brought to you by DePaul University’s Department of Latin American and Latino Studies and the Futuro Media Group, producers of Latino USA, Humanizing America, In The Thick and America By the Numbers With Maria Hinojosa:

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The event is open to the public. You can register for free at this link. Here is the schedule of events:

Schedule:

9:00-9:30am – Introductions and Coffee

9:30-11:00am – Deconstructing the Myth of Numbers with Maria Hinojosa (Futuro Media Group), Mark Hugo Lopez (Pew Research Center), Cristina Mora (University of California, Berkeley), Michael Rodriguez (University of Chicago), and Julio Ricardo Varela (Futuro Media Group)

11:15-12:30pm – Humanizing America viewing and guests with Christian Diaz (“Young and Latino”) , Anthony Downer (“Leaders of Color”), Omar Lopez (“Senior and Progressive”), Reema Ahmad (“Young and Muslim”), and Maria Hinojosa

12:30-1:00pm Networking and Strategizing Break

1:00-2:15pm – Black/Brown Coalitions with Valerie Johnson (DePaul University), María de Los Angeles Torres (University of Illinois in Chicago), and Laura Washington (Chicago Sun Times)

2:15pm-3:00pm – Hispandering with Latina comedian Cristela Alonzo

WHEN
WHERE
DePaul University Lincoln Park Student Center – 2250 North Sheffield Avenue Room 120A (Multipurpose Room), Chicago, IL 60614 – View Map

The Generation Gap Between Latino Voters

Latino Democrats are pretty evenly split between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, according to this poll. Within that split, older voters tend to prefer Clinton while younger voters give more support to Sanders.

The reasons why seem to be embodied by activist icon Dolores Huerta, who is strongly supporting Clinton and actress Rosario Dawson who has been hitting the campaign trail for Sanders.

Herta and Dawson recently had a public disagreement that started when Huerta published an article criticizing Sanders. Then there was the situation at the Nevada caucus and the question on whether or not Bernie Sanders supporters were chanting “English Only” at Huerta.

Host Maria Hinojosa, Futuro Media’s politics editor Julio Ricardo Varela and Latino USA senior producer Daisy Rosario hear from two experts, Stella Rouse and Stephen Nuño, about what might be motivating these preferences.

Major funding for Latino USA‘s election coverage provided by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, a private corporation funded by the American people.

Featured image: Dolores Huerta and Rosario Dawson in 2014 (Photo by Vivien Killilea/Getty Images for Budweiser)